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モンティ・ホール問題（モンティ・ホールもんだい、英: Monty Hall problem）とは、確率論の問題で、ベイズの定理における事後確率、あるいは主観確率の例題の一つとなっている。モンティ・ホール（英語版）（Monty Hall, 本名：Monte Halperin）が司会者を務めるアメリカのゲームショー番組、「Let's make a deal（英語版）」の中で行われたゲームに関する論争に由来する。. 倍になるからだ」と回答した。すると直後から、読者からの「彼女の解答は間違っている」との約1万通の投書が殺到し、本問題は大議論に発展した。
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